If the Social Research Foundation (SRF) is to be believed, something happened last weekend that tipped polling in a direction people are struggling to explain. Traditionally, in the last couple of weeks running up to an election the big parties such as the ANC and the DA start to squeeze out their smaller rivals. But last weekend, the SRF poll shows a sudden, marked and ongoing decline in ANC support — the only relatable event being the president’s decision to sign the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill into law.

Sources in the DA say the trends reported by the SRF broadly match their own internal polling...

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