NEWS FROM THE FUTURE: Pack up your suitcases

Dateline: October 13 2035

The northern hemisphere’s record-breaking heatwaves this past summer continue to claim casualties. Many of the Pacific and Indian Ocean island states have started to call in the pledges from surrounding nations and are now actively relocating their citizens to drier and cooler lands.

Sub-Saharan Africa is battling relentless waves of drought and floods while trying to feed its ever-growing population. In Europe, climate refugees from North Africa and Asia are pouring in, sparking violent social unrest and widespread mass protests.

The stage is set for major drama during next week’s Council of Europe Ministers meeting, scheduled to start on Tuesday night with a social dinner hosted by the French president. One of the more controversial items on the agenda that is threatening to rip the EU apart is the “Travel Ban for the Climate” proposal, mooted by hardliners within the EU Parliament as the only way to reach the +1.5°C  climate goal. Climate scientists and the Global South (who are bearing the brunt of climate change) are all supporting the proposal, while top tourism destinations are firmly against it.

The concept is simple but incendiary: ban all leisure travel for the next 15 years; only allow essential work travel; move all goods traffic to trains and electric vehicle (EV) trucks; and ban all cruise ships from entering European territorial waters, unless they’re sail-and-solar hybrids. That it will give Earth a chance to recover and get back into balance, all agree, but the societal cost for the developed world will be ginormous, as the economic activity pushed away will probably never return.

With government overreach, and the implementation of arbitrary rules and Covid-19 lockdowns still fresh in their memory, EU citizens are already rebelling. They question who should approve travel requests, and on what basis, and point to darker times in European history when people’s movements were controlled by the state.

On the positive side are the results from France’s ban on short-haul flights that have reduced pollution and revitalised the rail travel industry, though airlines and aircraft companies’ fortunes have plunged.

The media are anticipating an explosive session, and we can expect to see a flurry of compromises and trade-offs coming out of next week’s meeting. But if you’re planning the holiday of a lifetime this festive season, get ready to stop!

• First published on Mindbullets October 12 2023

Flygskam kills the travel bug

As ‘flight shame’ takes off, Sweden’s travel market bites the dust

Dateline: July 15 2024

In a world where international air travel has almost doubled in the past five years, and is rising exponentially, one would expect an affluent market such as Sweden to be absolutely booming; Swedes are outgoing, and love to travel.

The absolute opposite is the case. Fuelled by the impassioned monologues of climate activism prodigy Greta Thunberg, eco-conscious Scandinavians are too ashamed to fly, even for business.

What’s more, if they’re high-profile celebrities, such as actors or politicians, they risk being outed on Instagram and X, formerly Twitter, before they’ve even boarded the plane, should they succumb to the temptation to choose a fast, efficient means of transport to a foreign city. “Take the train!” scream the shaming tweets, while the poor singers and execs try to hide behind their recycled newsprint or designer shades.

It’s common knowledge that jet airliners emit more carbon dioxide per passenger kilometre than other forms of transport — most of the time. But what’s often ignored are the productivity gains from getting to your sales meeting or music gig on time, and without wasting too much time en route. And the knock-on effects.

In fact, it’s not just the travel industry that’s suffering; “flygskam” is contributing significantly to the general malaise affecting the economies of Northern Europe, compounded by the high cost of “Energiewende”, particularly in Scandinavia, where solar is not strong. There are just too many grey and dark days.

More rational optimists are condemning these “futile” attempts to go green by shunning modern technology. “You can’t go back to crofters’ cottages and horses and carts, and have global progress too,” says an irritated airline executive. “Besides, the Asian market is going crazy!”

Indeed it is. Chinese and Indian millennials are everywhere this summer. And business class is booked solid. It’s really “hygge”.

• First published on Mindbullets July 4 2019

• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.