STEVEN KUO: 2022: The rise of Brics+ and slow decline of the West

This year saw the start of the biggest war in Europe since World War 2. It was also the year Chinese president Xi Jinping began his third term in office. Historians will note 2022 as a watershed for the decline of the West and rise of the rest.

That does not mean the West will fade into irrelevance any time soon. Just look at Britain. It has long lost its empire; its politics is in shambles and its economy in free-fall. But it remains an influential  player in global politics.

At the beginning of 2022, as we all looked forward to getting our lives back from lockdown, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine. I wrote on February 24: “We can expect tens of thousands of civilian casualties, millions of refugees and huge disruption to energy and food supplies”.

Ukraine may have had more than its fair share of domestic issues, but it was and is a member of the UN. Moreover, Ukrainians are comrades with Russia; they fought shoulder to shoulder against Nazi Germany. And the country is now run by a popularly elected Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

I was initially understanding of Putin’s predicament. I argued that he felt threatened by the ever-expanding Nato, which was created to counter the threat of the Soviet Union and her satellite states in Eastern Europe. I could understand why Putin thought he had to act.

I also defended President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to stand with Russia, a Brics bloc partner, despite Putin’s blatant disregard for the UN Charter when he launched his war and violated the sovereignty of the Ukrainian nation.

I was sympathetic to the realpolitik choice Putin made as he pushed back against Nato, which he perceived as an existential threat to Russia. I was also supportive of Ramaphosa’s position, which was the same ideological line taken by Nelson Mandela.

Mandela proclaimed at a town-hall meeting while touring the US in 1990 that “one of the mistakes some political analysts make is to think that their enemies should be our enemies”. He was responding to a question on why he praised Fidel Castro, Muammar Gaddafi and others the US considered enemies. Russia, China, Cuba and North Korea are enemies of the West. They are not SA’s enemies.

I was wrong on both counts. Putin may have felt threatened, but this did not excuse him launching an attack on a sovereign country. Russia is SA’s ally in Brics, but SA cannot wash its hands of responsibility and remain silent in the face of war, even if it is a European war that does not directly affect us.

The ANC took up arms to do something about the situation in SA under apartheid, so it knows how useless empty calls for support and dialogue are.

Most middle power countries saw the writing on the wall in 2022 and began to hedge their bets. Brics, once a sideshow, has become the up-and-coming international organisation for middle powers. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia and Argentina have all applied to join.

An expanded Brics+ may not necessarily be to SA’s advantage. As the club becomes more crowded with economically more powerful Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Indonesia, SA — already the smallest Brics member — is likely to have less influence.

SA used to punch above its weight in global politics. We had Mandela, a global icon, and Mbeki, who delivered the “I am an African” speech. Even Zuma got SA the Brics membership. Ramaphosa’s accomplishment? He will go down in history as the first foreign head of state to be received by King Charles III.

• Dr Kuo, a former lecturer at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, is adjunct senior lecturer in the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.