When the rand is weak or weakening, individuals who are looking to travel abroad, corporates that are looking to import and financial institutions looking to repatriate funds to the country always ask if and when the rand is going to bounce back. This question has become one of the most frequently asked in recent weeks as the rand weakens.

Those who ask this question are generally looking for a point forecast for the rand relative to the dollar. But it is nigh on impossible to forecast macroeconomic variables that are influenced by a multitude of factors. As Nobel physics laureate Niels Bohr once said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” That said, there is a framework or signposts to guide our thinking...

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