JAMES REELER: Key climate moment calls for ‘course correction’

Environment, forestry and fisheries minister Barbara Creecy has accepted a significant role ahead of the upcoming climate COP28, due to be held in Dubai in December. With her Danish counterpart, Dan Jørgensen, she will be co-facilitating discussions at a political level among the relevant government ministers ahead of the Global Stocktake, a process that was established under the Paris climate agreement. 

The Global Stocktake is a climate inventory meant to be taken every five years to ensure we are on course. It requires countries and stakeholders (among them businesses, cities and civil society) to evaluate what progress has been made towards meeting the goals of the Paris agreement. And it’s an opportunity for a much-needed, fundamental course correction. 

Creecy and Jørgensen’s job is to convene a representative sample of parties, groups and constituencies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to hear their views on critical outcomes of the stocktake. These findings will be reported at the opening of Climate Week in New York this week and will inform proceedings at the upcoming COP28 with the view to influencing any agreements reached there. 

Ideally the Global Stocktake helps countries fine-tune their promises, raises their ambition and accelerates climate action in the spirit of international co-operation. With this in mind WWF SA believes there are key areas of action needed to achieve the desired course correction.

At its most ambitious, the stocktake should set the direction for enhanced climate action to address a common threat. With Creecy’s extensive experience in the environmental sector we trust she will take these messages forward — even though this role will be separate from SA’s own negotiation strategy. 

Putting nature front and centre 

Functioning natural systems are essential for human society to be able to adapt to a changing climate. Nature also underpins humanity’s most critical needs for food, energy and water. The Global Biodiversity Framework recognises the role of nature-based solutions, restoration and protection of natural systems for humanity’s continued wellbeing. A course correction must make explicit mention of the benefits that the protection of nature hold for both adaptation and mitigation.

At the same time we should guard against unwarrantedly high assumptions about the potential for carbon capture and storage. The hazards implicit in these assumptions are twofold: large-scale carbon capture and storage projects such as mass tree planting have the potential to damage functioning ecosystems, and they encourage unrealistic assumptions that will further delay the phase out of fossil fuels. 

Redirecting fossil fuel subsidies

Fossil fuel subsidies present structural economic barriers that, according to the UNFCCC, “perpetuate inertia to change and prevent cost-effective, low-carbon alternatives from being adopted”. It is common cause in the scientific community that a speedy and full phase-out of all fossil fuels is critical. For this reason, these subsidies (not just “inefficient subsidies”) should be repurposed towards renewable energy alternatives and support for climate finance. 

Monitoring and tracking national progress

The UNFCCC has devoted much work to the review and ratchet mechanism, requiring countries to revise, amend and make public their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The so-called ratchet mechanism — also known as the “ambition mechanism” — is a way of ensuring our climate actions become progressively more ambitious over time. Yet NDCs are highly variable in terms of the detail of targets, much less on how these will be implemented.

A course correction should provide guidance on the specifics of target setting, with predetermined implementation mechanisms at a national level, and give clarity on timelines and conditional/unconditional components. These must include concrete milestones and targets, highlighting roles and responsibilities for accountability.

A common framework would enable near-real-time tracking of implementation at a subnational and international level, facilitating both the reviewing process and enabling clarity around ratchet options for individual nations. 

Advocating for justice and equity 

The stocktake is also an opportunity for the UNFCCC to reintroduce elements of equity that were sidelined within the Paris agreement, such as developing principles for equitable allocation of “carbon space” or consumption-based accounting.

Carbon space is essentially the amount of remaining emission that will push the world past the climate targets. Equitable allocation of this space in a top-down manner highlights not only that developed nations must transition nearly immediately, but also that developing nations cannot afford to delay.

Linking this to national consumption, rather than just national production, also strengthens the argument for developed nations to support the transition in developing nations, from where they obtain significant amounts of their resources through trade. 

Climate justice and equity is certainly an area where SA — a long-time and strong advocate for the UNFCCC’s key principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities — is well placed to be of influence.

Any actions should consider divergent national circumstances, but the onus to transition to a low-carbon and equitable economy is nevertheless on all nations, including our own. 

• Reeler is senior manager: climate action with WWF SA.