EMILE MYBURGH: Russia has made fools of the global left

Through its war in Ukraine Russia has made a fool of the global left (especially the radical left), including those in SA, almost in the same way that Donald Trump and his acolytes made fools of the global right.  Both yearn for long-gone times in the hope of regaining supposedly lost glory, a common phenomenon among ageing baby boomers.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has cynically convinced former allies of the defunct Soviet Union, in Africa and elsewhere, that its war in Ukraine is not an unprovoked murderous rampage but really a long overdue reckoning with an unrepentant West; that Russia is fighting on behalf of Africa and other former exploited nations. 

Through their ostensive “neutrality” countries like SA have shown how gullible they are to this Russian ruse. In the name of some vague gratitude for Soviet support against apartheid and colonialism many African countries now seem to believe they are eternally indebted to Russia, the Soviet Union’s reincarnated zombie, and will blindly support whatever Russia does. 

What they don’t seem to realise is that their hero was the USSR, which no longer exists, not Russia, which has donned the decayed corpse of the USSR, trying to pass itself off as its legitimate successor.

These countries’ neutrality is particularly bizarre when one considers that in 2020 their trade with Russia represented about 1%-2% of their trade with Nato members or the US. SA exported about $10bn worth of goods to the US (mostly raw materials), while the US exported $4,2bn to SA (mostly manufactured goods), leaving us with an almost $6bn trade surplus. 

During the same period SA exported goods worth $587m to Russia while importing goods worth $506m from Russia, leaving us with an $81m surplus. We earned about 84 times more from the US than from Russia, so why does our loyalty lie with the Soviet corpse? We get almost nothing from Russia in exchange for what Russian foreign minister called our “principled stance” on the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden pledged $55bn in investment to Africa at a US-Africa summit held in Washington in December. Cynics might say the Biden administration’s attempts to woo Africa are entirely linked to its aim to sway Africa against Russia in favour of Ukraine, something they will not achieve. 

With African fealty to Russia rock steady and not based on rational consideration, and with China having conquered Africa long ago, one wonders how the US thinks it is going win our hearts and minds. It certainly won’t be through trade. It is a latecomer to the latest scramble for Africa and much hard work is ahead, but at least it is trying. 

So considering that neither commercial sense nor reason, nor the images of pregnant Ukrainian mothers being blown up in maternity wards by Russian missiles, are capable of swaying our loyalty to Russia, what other possibilities are available to Biden to at least get our leaders’ attention? 

One shaky possibility may lie in Brazil and other South American countries. After Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s election victory in October South America is now almost exclusively ruled by left leaning governments (most of which are also officially “neutral” about the war). 

Lula is at best ambivalent about Russia and will not want to be seen to be doing the “imperialist West’s” bidding. He recently told French president Emanuel Macron that Brazil’s war is against hunger and not against Russia (an easy cop-out), making it clear that Brazil is not going to choose Ukraine’s side.

With several far left allies who suffer from the same delusions about some sort of gratitude owed to the defunct Soviet Union, allies whose support Lula needs, Brazil currently has the same “principled stance” as many African nations. 

This may not go down well with nations that strongly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and expect others to follow suit. But Lula can be an effective bridge between the US and Africa because, no matter how great his and his allies’ gratitude to the USSR may be, he just cannot afford to alienate the US. 

Although China is Brazil’s biggest trading partner, exporting more than double to China than to the US, almost half of Brazil’s population are fervent supporters of the US (former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters have often been seen protesting with American flags draped around their bodies). So Lula’s hands are tied; he will have to appease left and right, and that’s what could make him an effective bridge. 

Lula is a hero in Africa. During his first stint as president from 2003 to 2011 he made Africa a priority for Brazilian businesses (many of which are still operating here). Brazil has the advantage of not being saddled with a colonialist background. 

Of course, American jobs in Africa rival, if not exceed, Brazilian and Chinese jobs, but the US is still viewed as an imperial power, the instigator of illegal regime change that propped up Latin American dictators. That view is not going to change overnight.

Biden and Lula have known each other for many years. Even before Lula’s inauguration Biden had invited him to visit Washington. Former US president Barack Obama referred to Lula as “my man”.

Lula’s first trip abroad after being elected was to Africa (to COP27 in Egypt).  Many international leaders are making a beeline to Lula, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz the latest to visit Brasilia.

But even Lula and other “neutral” countries will at some point realise that neutrality is not viable. The left has no doubt done well to fight for human rights, to highlight the plight of the poor and the consequences of environmental destruction, and to curb the excesses of unbridled capitalism.

However, it can no longer be beholden to a romanticised view of their past struggle. Not while their former hero is wantonly killing innocent civilians in a futile attempt to regain some “glory” it never had.

• Myburgh is an attorney practising in Johannesburg and São Paulo.