Shades of Zuma: the rise of Kenya’s streetwise William Ruto

Kenya’s presidential election in August is the standout political event in Africa in 2022. Elections in the country are never short of drama: the 2007 poll was characterised by countrywide postelectoral ethnic violence; the 2013 poll took place while leading candidates faced criminal prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC); and the 2017 election result was annulled and followed by a rerun (amid an opposition boycott). The current election year is set to be just as eventful, as political intrigue, uncertainty and volatility loom large.

The 2022 ballot will pit former prime minister and serial presidential candidate Raila Odinga against vice-president William Ruto — current president Uhuru Kenyatta has served two terms and is barred from contesting. The imminent leadership change has provoked concerns from investors. Among these are apparent parallels between the ascent of Ruto and that of Jacob Zuma in SA.

Zuma’s compromised presidency was almost a decade of economic stagnation, erosion of state institutions, rampant corruption and declining levels of investment. Now, investors in one of Africa’s largest economies are experiencing a sense of déjà vu amid the rise of a charismatic and populist figure tainted by allegations of corruption.

But is this fear justified? To be sure, there are similarities between two savvy politicians. Like Zuma, Ruto comes from humble beginnings. His rags-to-riches story, political charm and human touch have resonated with ordinary Kenyans. Ruto is a self-branded “hustler”, while Zuma marketed himself as a man of the people and later as the champion of “radical economic transformation”.

Zuma adopted a grassroots and populist approach, presenting himself as an alternative to the intellectual, aloof and disengaged Thabo Mbeki. Likewise, Ruto has skilfully tapped into the growing disillusionment with elite and dynastic dominance of the political landscape in Kenya and has railed against the “alliance of the elite” comprising Kenyatta, Odinga and, to a lesser extent, Gideon Moi. All three are the sons of politicians who have dominated political power since independence. Like Zuma in 2007, Ruto has marketed himself as an outsider and tried to stitch together a coalition of the disillusioned to propel him to the presidency.

Another common feature between the two men is their tribal appeal. In Kenya, ethnic arithmetic plays a major role in electoral accounting, and it was for this reason that Kenyatta and Ruto entered a marriage of convenience in 2013 — delivering a key constituency of the Kalenjin people to Kenyatta in the Rift Valley region. Though tribal loyalties are less pronounced in SA, Zuma as a Zulu has significant pulling power in KwaZulu-Natal, which has been a perennial battleground in internal leadership contests of the ANC.

Then there is the uneasy relationship with their political superiors. In recent years, Kenyatta actively sought to sideline Ruto through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), the Political Parties Amendment Bill, and other backdoor legal manoeuvring. In 2005, Mbeki famously fired Zuma from the vice-presidential position amid corruption charges — something Zuma later used to springboard his presidential campaign, both within the ANC and then nationally. Ruto too has alleged that he is the victim of a political conspiracy by Kenyatta, who is purportedly laying the foundation for the ascent of his favoured successor, Odinga.

And, finally, the elephant in the room — corruption. Before his ascendancy to president, Zuma faced multiple charges of corruption and racketeering relating to the arms deal scandal; these were dropped in 2009, but have been reinstated. Ruto has thus far managed to escape criminal prosecution for charges of impropriety that include stealing public funds and land-grabbing.

That said, there are some differences. Unlike Zuma, Ruto has demonstrated acute business acumen. Ruto owns enterprises in multiple sectors, and current estimates place his net worth at more than $400m. These ventures have seen him emerge as one of Kenya’s wealthiest individuals, and gain repute among local and international commercial interests as a skilled navigator of Kenya’s commercial environment.

So, can Ruto do in 2022 what Zuma did in 2009? The cards are certainly stacked against him. Zuma had the backing of the governing party and its political and financial might. Ruto must oppose Kenya’s two most influential political figures, their two parties — which dominate parliament — and their abundant resources. But it would be foolish to rule him out.

The political climate is ripe for a victory of the marginalised insider. In contrast to previous elections, local commentators argue that the ethnic arithmetic is slightly less pronounced, as demonstrated by several surprising by-electoral outcomes in historic regions such as Mount Kenya. These suggest voters are willing to go beyond narrow demographic considerations. Nevertheless, ethnicity does matter still, and Ruto has crafted a campaign that suggests as much.

Ruto, a Kalenjin, has cobbled together a coalition with two of the most prominent Luhya politicians, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula, in the hope of matching Kenyatta and Odinga’s Kikuyu-Luo axis. Also in the ranks of his Kenya Kwanza Alliance are business people such as the CEO of Keroche Breweries, Tabitha Karanja, who as one of Kenya’s wealthiest women will bring much-needed financial muscle.

Questions over the integrity of both Kenyatta and Odinga may also play to Ruto’s advantage. The BBI has been dismissed by the courts as unconstitutional, null and void; Kenyatta was named in the Pandora Papers for offshoring funds; and the president’s anticorruption agenda has appeared to be more of a political witch-hunt than a genuine effort to clamp down on malfeasance. Odinga, meanwhile, has been scrutinised for forsaking his renowned anti-establishment posture in favour of what many deem to be political expedience in his alignment with Kenyatta.

Finally, the political winds across the continent are blowing in Ruto’s favour. Recent years have seen stunning opposition victories, the highlight of which was Hakainde Hichilema and his party’s unprecedented victory in Zambia’s general election in August 2021. Central to each of these was popular aggravation with the status quo among marginalised populations (usually the youth) and astute political messaging — which Ruto is attuned to in the Kenyan context.

What would the contours of a Ruto presidency look like? He is no paragon of virtue, but unlikely to be the pantomime figure feared by investors either. He will no doubt come under pressure to reward allies for their backing, but there is little reason to suggest any marked deviation from the current levels of patronage.

His populism is largely devoid of any grand socialistic or nationalistic tropes, and his commercial savvy suggests he may even be a market-friendly statesman. Geopolitically, there is also little to suggest that Ruto will dramatically shift from Kenya’s current east-west alignment. And should he err, he will have a proficient judiciary, scrutinous markets, and wary bilateral partners as straitjackets.

Kenya’s upcoming ballot will either cement the country’s dynastic rule for another five years or fundamentally alter the commanding heights of politics. But, unlike SA in 2009, East Africa’s largest economy is not staring at the prospect of five lost years.

• Gopaldas is a director at Signal Risk and fellow at GIBS Business School. Ndhlovu is a senior analyst at Signal Risk.