Donald Trump’s plan of isolating Iran is quite likely to backfire
In short, the global oil supply chain can handle the loss of 500,000 bpd of Iranian crude, although doing so may come at the cost of higher prices
Nusa Dua, Indonesia — Saudi Arabia is in pole position to be the major beneficiary of US President Donald Trump’s decision to walk away from the Iranian nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic. It’s little surprise that one of the few voices of support for Trump’s move was from Saudi Arabia, the main rival to Iran in the volatile Middle East. The Saudis stand to enjoy a double-whammy windfall as crude oil prices may remain strong and state producer Saudi Aramco will also likely to be able to pump more oil to replace any Iranian barrels lost because of the re-imposed sanctions. A cherry on top of this is that customers who had been turning away from Saudi crude, such as the world’s top importer China, may be forced to buy more from the Kingdom. This would allow the Saudis to regain market share lost since the 2016 deal between oil cartel Opec and allies, such as Russia, to reduce output in order to tighten global oil markets. The main risk for the Saudis is that ...
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