Rand could carry on climbing in February
However, investors should be mindful of the rand’s volatile nature, economist Elna Moolman says
The rand may be headed for a positive February, if history is any guide. Seasonal data shows that the currency has strengthened against the dollar in February in seven of the past 10 years. Optimism about local political developments and a global risk-on mood spurred the rand to back-to-back monthly gains in January and February 2018, and the same factors have already pushed it to its best start since at least 1999 this time around.
Finance minister Tito Mboweni is scheduled to present the budget on February 20, but few are expecting major changes from the numbers signalled in his medium-term budget policy statement in October 2018. Should the budget outcome meet expectations, that may reduce the chance of Moody’s Investors Service lowering the nation’s credit rating when it reviews its assessment in March. Still, investors should be mindful of the rand’s volatile nature, said Standard Bank economist Elna Moolman. “A pragmatic budget that doesn’t trigger negative sovereign cre...
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