ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: What SA's GDP numbers will tell economists
GDP data may disappoint, but a much improved global economic environment provides an upside, writes Sunita Menon
Balance of payments, gold and foreign exchange reserves and business confidence numbers will come out this week but economists will pay close attention to GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2016 which are expected to show a contraction after a grim year. GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% quarter on quarter due to an underperformance in mining and manufacturing. On a year-on-year basis, GDP is forecast to have expanded by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Predictions are that the economy grew 0.5% in 2016, extending the declining trend in GDP growth since 2011. NKC African Economics economist Elize Kruger said: "The growth figure has the potential to disappoint and could be marginally negative [on a quarter-on-quarter basis]. The overall growth outcome for 2016 is still likely to be 0.4%, the lowest since the recession in 2009 and still way too low to address the unemployment crisis and social inequalities." Despite the contraction, economists are optimistic that SA’s economy is picki...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.