Canadians are concerned about contamination from US political strife

Ottawa — Canadians say they are concerned political strife in the US will undermine security and economic growth at home, according to a new poll, as a protest against mandatory vaccination praised by former US President Donald Trump gripped the capital and affected the border.

The anxiety captured in the Angus Reid Institute survey provides a backdrop to protests across the country, at the international border, and especially in Ottawa, the capital, where police say Americans have provided a “significant” amount of money and organisational support.

The Ottawa protest, now in its 13th day, has been marred by the appearance of hateful symbols, such as the Confederate flag, associated with the aggressive populism embraced by Trump supporters. Some protesters say their goal is not only to roll back vaccine mandates, but also to overthrow the government.

“The success or failure of the US will have a profound impact on Canada,” said Bruce Heyman, former American ambassador to Canada from 2014-2017. “Part of the more extreme nature of our politics over the last few years has now moved to occupy some part of Canada today.”

In the poll, 78% of Canadians said they are worried that America’s democratic discord will affect their country’s economy and security. The survey of 1,620 Canadians was conducted between January 27 and January 31, around the time the Ottawa protest began.

Two-thirds of Canada’s 38 million people live within 100km of the US border, and the two countries are each other’s top trading partners. Three-quarters of all Canadian exports going to its southern neighbour, while half of Canada’s imports come from the US, including 60% of all imported fresh vegetables.

The January 6 anniversary of the storming of Capitol Hill in Washington last year led to a series of articles in Canadian newspapers that sounded an alarm about the resiliency of American democracy, particularly after the 2024 election.

Until recently, politics in Canada has been less polarised than in the US. One example is the adoption of vaccines: nearly 80% of Canadians have had two shots of a Covid-19 vaccine in contrast to 64% in the US.

However, last week’s removal of Conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole in part for failing to embrace the protest suggests the political landscape is shifting.

“Canadians have generally looked to the US and felt, like, ‘Whatever is going on there, it’s not as bad in Canada’,” said Shachi Kurl, Angus Reid president.

“We like to think of ourselves as ... a country of circumspection and compromise and friendliness, yet two in five people don’t feel that way any more,” she said. About 37% of Canadians say there is no room for political compromise in their country, the poll shows.

Ottawa police said on Tuesday they had worked with Ohio police to track down and arrest a man there for calling in fake threats “designed to deceive and distract our emergency resources”, deputy police chief Steve Bell said. 

On Monday, Canada’s federal public safety minister Marco Mendicino said the government would be “very vigilant about external forces, about foreign interference”.

A wake-up call

Trump last weekend spoke out in support of the truckers and called Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “far-left lunatic”.

According to the Angus Reid poll, 68% of Canadians believe US democracy cannot survive another Trump presidency, and 47% said the US is on its way to becoming an authoritarian state.

“The US used to be a beacon of democracy, and now it’s exporting right-wing sedition to other democratic countries,” said Roland Paris, Trudeau’s former foreign policy adviser and professor of international affairs at University of Ottawa.

“The worse things get in the US, the more dangerous it will be for Canada,” Paris said, calling the Ottawa protest a “wake-up call”.

Gerry Butts, vice-chair of Eurasia Group and formerly Trudeau’s top adviser, says “Canadians are astute observers of what’s happening in the US, and they’re rightly anxious about it”.

“In the long term, Canada will be like everyone else ... badly damaged if the US becomes a democracy in name only,” he said. 

Reuters