Lull in Brazil’s coffee production will boost arabica prices
Tightening global supplies in the coming season are expected to lift arabica prices to $1.25/lb by the end of 2019, 24.8% above Monday's close
New York — Arabica coffee prices will rise nearly 20% by the end of 2019 as Brazil's shift to an off-year in its biennial production cycle helps swing the world into a global deficit, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Tuesday. The survey participants anticipate a global deficit of one-million 60kg bags in 2019-2020, according to the median forecast, compared to estimates of a 4.25-million-bag surplus for 2018-2019. Tightening global supplies in the coming season are expected to lift arabica prices to $1.25 per pound by the end of 2019, 24.8% above Monday's close. "Arabica prices should find some support by the fact that 2019-2020 is set to be an 'off year' output in Brazil," said Caroline Bain, analyst at Capital Economics. Respondents expect the 2019-2020 crop for top producer Brazil at a median 55-million bags, little changed from previous forecasts. This represents a decline of about 8.3% from the record 2018-2019 crop, whose massive size helped push arabica p...
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