New York — Arabica coffee prices will rise nearly 20% by the end of 2019 as Brazil's shift to an off-year in its biennial production cycle helps swing the world into a global deficit, a Reuters poll of nine traders and analysts showed on Tuesday. The survey participants anticipate a global deficit of one-million 60kg bags in 2019-2020, according to the median forecast, compared to estimates of a 4.25-million-bag surplus for 2018-2019. Tightening global supplies in the coming season are expected to lift arabica prices to $1.25 per pound by the end of 2019, 24.8% above Monday's close. "Arabica prices should find some support by the fact that 2019-2020 is set to be an 'off year' output in Brazil," said Caroline Bain, analyst at Capital Economics. Respondents expect the 2019-2020 crop for top producer Brazil at a median 55-million bags, little changed from previous forecasts. This represents a decline of about 8.3% from the record 2018-2019 crop, whose massive size helped push arabica p...

BL Premium

This article is reserved for our subscribers.

A subscription helps you enjoy the best of our business content every day along with benefits such as exclusive Financial Times articles, ProfileData financial data, and digital access to the Sunday Times and Sunday Times Daily.

Already subscribed? Simply sign in below.

Questions or problems? Email or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now