By now, a day ahead of Tuesday’s shareholder vote, the fate of Lonmin will probably have been decided. And given how widely dispersed the shareholding is and the likelihood most institutional investors will opt for the relative security offered by the Sibanye-Stillwater takeover proposal, it seems inevitable the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) has determined that fate. With its 29.3% stake, the PIC can block any deal — such as the share swap proposed by Sibanye-Stillwater, which requires 75% shareholder support. Sibanye-Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman has confirmed he will not make any further changes to the one-for-one offer that is on the table following the rather derisory 3.4% “improvement” announced in April. This fighting talk is essentially confirmation of the UK regulations, which now prohibit a higher offer. Froneman is adamant the deal is attractive for Lonmin, which he contends is not a going concern on a stand-alone basis, even at the current improved platinum prices...

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