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SA’s agricultural sector has had two consecutive years of strong growth, with expansion in all sub-sectors — livestock, field crops and horticulture. This year will be a break from the 2020 and 2021 strong performance. I expect the sector’s gross value added to fall 3%-5% year on year given the high base from 2021.

The overall field crops harvest is likely to be lower than the previous season, though some crops such as soya beans and sunflower seed promise a large harvest. But this will not be the only source of potential contraction in the sector. The livestock sector, which accounts for about half the sector’s gross value added, continues to face numerous challenges...

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