One of many great unknowns in this election is how power will split in urban centres. The ANC is going to be hard pressed to get to 50% in a number of metropolitan municipalities. If it finishes the campaign strongly, it could just squeak in. If it doesn’t, all manner of possibilities arise.

But one thing is clear: SA’s cities are where the ANC is weakest. The great divide, between the country’s rural and urban populations, is also the ANC’s great divide. At the heart of it is the middle class — that ill-defined, largely ignored constituency that seems to boast no natural political home...

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