I was bearish in a bear market. That was wise. I had sold stocks short. That was proper. I had sold them too soon. That was costly. I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market, it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine backfiring. — Jesse Livermore, American investor and security analyst As long as no one cares there is no trend. You can’t be short just because you think fundamentally something is overpriced … all you can do is wait until people start to care. You want to be selling at 4,000, but only after it has gone to 5,000. That is on the way down, not on the way up. Because in a bubble, who is to say how far a market can go? Even though something might be a good idea, you need to wait for and recognise the right time. If you read the Financial Times it’s all there. You don’t have to be a brilliant economist; you just have to recognise when something matters. What we knew about the whole syst...
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