NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: Grand Renaissance Dam standoff threatens expanded Brics’ unity

In the world of geopolitics water can be as powerful as oil, and the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a glaring example of how control and management of this vital resource affects international relations. The impending entry of Egypt and Ethiopia into the Brics bloc of emerging market countries adds a layer of complexity to negotiations, potentially turning a regional quarrel into a big challenge for Brics unity. 

The hydroelectric dam offers an amazing opportunity for Ethiopia to expand its electricity production and advance its economic growth. However, built at the source of the Nile, the project threatens to reduce water flow downstream into Egypt, with potentially devastating consequences for a country heavily dependent on agriculture and already facing a major economic crisis.    

The latest round of negotiations surrounding the $4.2bn hydroelectric project concluded on an inconclusive note, with Ethiopia expressing optimism and Egypt disappointment. Considering the profound implications of the project for both countries, neither side appears willing to compromise. The impasse threatens to heighten regional tensions with Egypt and Ethiopia, among six new states slated to join the Brics bloc in early 2024.

Though no agreement was reached, ambassador Seleshi Bekele, head of the Ethiopian delegation, pledged to continue talks “in good faith,” highlighting the exchange of constructive ideas among the parties. However, the Egyptian side expressed frustration, stating that the discussions ended without significant progress. According to the Egyptian delegation, the Ethiopians still opposed compromise solutions or internationally agreed-upon technical arrangements that could address its concerns. 

Protracted negotiations have not achieved consensus on several key issues, including the filling and operation of the dam, as well as mechanisms for resolving future disputes. The potential effect of the dam on downstream water flow into Egypt has been a major concern throughout negotiations. Egypt relies heavily on the Nile, which makes this issue critical for its people’s agriculture, drinking water and overall livelihoods. The UN has warned that Egypt could run out of water by 2025, underlining the urgency of these soon-to-be Brics states coming to an agreement. 

Ethiopia, which views the dam as central to its development plans, announced the completion of the fourth filling of the dam in September. At full capacity, the enormous hydroelectric dam could generate more than 5,000MW of electricity, doubling Ethiopia’s electricity production and providing power to the 60-million Ethiopians (half the population) who still lack access to electricity. As such, the completed dam is expected to provide a significant boost to Ethiopia’s fast-growing economy.   

On the other hand, the effect on Egypt could be devastating. Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry has continued to advance Cairo’s stance, asserting the need for a “binding agreement” on the dam. He highlighted the severity of the issue for Egypt, which is reliant on the Nile river for 97% of its water, by emphasising that the lives of more than 100-million Egyptian citizens are at stake.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his Ethiopian counterpart, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, had previously agreed to finalise a deal on the dam by the end of 2023. However, the failure of the latest talks to produce a settlement has highlighted the persistent disagreements and challenges the parties face in reaching a mutually agreeable resolution. 

With negotiations deadlocked, it remains to be seen to what extent the Brics expansion will reshape the dynamics of this critical regional issue. The inclusion of both Egypt and Ethiopia raises interesting questions about how existing and future disputes could affect the unity and common objectives of the Brics. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute clearly holds immense importance for both countries, and its potential escalation could test the solidarity of a newly expanded Brics grouping. 

The standoff highlights the tension between national development agendas and the collective responsibility inherent in being part of a regional alliance such as Brics. The bloc includes influential players on the world stage, but internal disputes could undermine its collective strength. Disharmony between new Brics members could undermine the group’s aim to develop political consensus among the world’s major emerging market economies.

To safeguard its cohesion the bloc should act as a platform to help resolve this issue. A failure to do so risks the emergence of factions within the alliance, potentially diluting its influence and effectiveness on the global stage. An inability to resolve a conflict between members could make the Brics appear ineffective at a time when questions are already being asked about the importance of the grouping.

As a primarily diplomatic forum, the Brics could help the parties reach a fair and just settlement that balances Ethiopia’s right to development with Egypt’s need for water security. Besides diplomacy, there are other ways in which the Brics could help find alternative solutions. Brics states such as Russia and China are well positioned to offer Ethiopia assistance in enhancing its energy security so that it does not become overly reliant on power produced by the dam.

Similarly, these states, along with the other founding Brics members, are major agriculture producers, well positioned to help alleviate any food shortages that could arise as a result of a possible decline in agricultural production resulting from the construction and operation of the dam. The addition of new members such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is also significant in that these states are world leaders in desalination, with 70% and 42% of their water coming from desalination respectively.

So while the ascension of Egypt and Ethiopia poses risks to Brics unity, it also offers a chance to prove that the Brics grouping is more than just a photo opportunity for world leaders disgruntled with the current global order. Brics nations have the resources, diplomatic muscle and technological expertise to assist in resolving the dam dispute, which will be an early test of the effectiveness of the expanded membership.

Successfully navigating this dispute would not only be a triumph for the region but also a testament to the strength and efficacy of the Brics bloc as a whole. 

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.