While we are in lockdown, the media around the world are full of speculation about what the short, medium and long term hold for the economy and industrial sectors. People such as CEOs, who have to make far-reaching decisions in this environment, are desperate to understand what is going on, what comes next and what the world will look like “when this is all over”.

Those who have to make such decisions in the glare of the public eye, like the US Federal Reserve or IMF, will unavoidably make those decisions based on certain assumptions. Even such institutions, with their vast research capabilities, are having to admit humbly that they have no idea what is really going on, or how this crisis will play out. It seems there are two types of economic analysts and commentators: those who pretend to know what is going on and how it is likely to play out, and those who admit they have no clue...

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