The political sands in SA are shifting, and shifting quickly. The ANC is moving from a position of weakness to strength, while the main opposition parties, the DA and EFF, are struggling. The big elephant now in the room is the future of President Jacob Zuma – will he survive, jump or be pushed before his term in office expires? Contrary to popular belief, it may well be none of the above. This is why: a "push" would demonstrate ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa’s new-found strength and send a clear signal to financial markets that change is imminent – cementing a clear departure from the Zuma era. However, considering Ramaphosa’s narrow victory margin in December, the fact that he still has a number of Zuma loyalists within his leadership team, as well as the unity narrative that has been put forward since his ascendancy, a messy exit would only serve to further fracture the ANC.

Ramaphosa himself has emphasised the need for a dignified and orderly exit for Zuma. Furthermore, the...

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