July’s petrol price hike might not feature in the Reserve Bank’s deliberations scheduled for this week, but other factors may cause a cautious central bank to maintain rates. A weaker rand, poor economic growth and lower consumer price index (CPI) inflation so far may subdue the Bank’s decision. But the weaker exchange rate and high wage settlements present upside risks to the inflation outlook. Petrol rose by between 23c and 26c a litre and diesel by 26c in July, a third consecutive rise. Miyelani Maluleke, vice-president of research at Absa Corporate & Investment Banking, said: "We see the bar for rate hikes as very high in the near term and expect the Reserve Bank to hike only in the third quarter of 2019." Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego said: "We maintain the view that the start of a moderate hiking cycle will be in the second half of 2019", as the Bank would delay hiking rates as long as possible. However, HSBC predicts a 25 basis-point hike in November 2018. "Rate hikes coul...
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