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The US Fed has finally acknowledged that it will have to take its rate-hiking decisions meeting by meeting. As inflation in parts of the world seems to be rolling over, it’s time to question whether we should be worried about inflation or recession.
The projected Fed Funds rate in December 2023 is revealing. The so-called Fed Dot Plot has it at 3.75%, while the bond market has it at 2.84%. The projected Fed Funds rate in Dec 2024, according to the Fed Dot Plot, is 3.38%, while the bond market has it 2.49%.
That’s a historically huge 100 basis points discrepancy between where the Fed's federal open market committee (FOMC) and the bond market believe Fed Funds will be.
Business Day TV speaks to Brian Kantor, head of the research institute at Investec Wealth & Investment; and Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research.
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Published by Arena Holdings and distributed with the Financial Mail on the last Thursday of every month except December and January.