German defence chief says Russia could attack Nato within 5 years

Warsaw — Russia could be prepared to attack Nato countries within five to eight years of rebuilding its forces hit by the Ukraine war should it choose to do so, Germany’s top military official says.

“By then, based on our analysis, Russia will have reconstituted its forces to a degree that an attack against Nato soil could be possible,” Lt-Gen Carsten Breuer, Germany’s defence chief, said during a visit to Poland. “I am not saying it will take place but that it could be possible.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to the deepest crisis in Moscow’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Still, Moscow has regularly dismissed as nonsense Western suggestions that it might consider an attack on Nato.

President Vladimir Putin reiterated last month that Russia had no designs on any Nato country, though he said it would shoot down any F-16 fighter jets supplied by the West to Ukraine.

Of Nato’s 32 members, six European nations share a border with Russia: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Russia now appears increasingly in the ascendancy in Ukraine, where the conflict is characterised by attritional trench combat reminiscent of World War 1 and hi-tech drone warfare.

Moscow now controls almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory including the Crimea peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.

“We see that Russia is producing a lot of war-fighting material and it is not putting all of this material to the front line in Ukraine ... so in 2029 we have to be ready,” Breuer said. “What we see is a threat in five to eight years.”

Ukrainian officials have said their armed forces number about 800,000, while in December Putin ordered Russia’s forces to be increased by 170,000 troops to 1.3-million.

Beyond personnel, Moscow's defence spending dwarfs that of Ukraine. In 2024 it earmarked $109bn for the sector, compared with Ukraine’s equivalent target of $43.8bn.

Reuters