A Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma win will suit opposition parties, survey finds
Opposition parties will suffer if Cyril Ramaphosa wins the ANC presidency, and it is in their interest to help Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma win, according to a survey by market research firm Ratepop.
The DA stands to lose 50.9% of its black voters if Ramaphosa is the ANC’s candidate in the 2019 national elections, and only 6.9% if the ruling party fields Dlamini-Zuma.
The EFF, similarly, stands to lose 43.3% of its voters if it faces Ramaphosa in 2019, and only 3.4% if it faces Dlamini-Zuma.
Ratepop found Ramaphosa to be by far the most popular candidate, with 81.1% of past ANC voters saying they would remain loyal to the party in 2019 if he stands. Only 43.8% said they would vote ANC again if Dlamini-Zuma stands.
Ratepop polled 2,100 South Africans who voted ANC in the past and found 18.8% of them would not vote for Ramaphosa and 56.1% would not vote for Dlamini-Zuma.
"With the ANC … having polled only approximately 54% in the 2016 local government elections, the chances of the ANC maintaining its parliamentary majority with Dlamini-Zuma at the helm of the party is substantially reduced and realistically unlikely at this point," Ratepop said in a note e-mailed on Monday morning.
The poll found Ramaphosa was the favourite candidate of 58.9% of ANC voters, with Dlamini-Zuma coming a distant second with 16%, followed by Zweli Mkhize and Lindiwe Sisulu tying for third place with 3.7% support each.