At its November policy meeting, the Reserve Bank already warned that the economic outlook was looking less certain, with parts of the world seeing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases.

In the first line of the November statement, the monetary policy committee (MPC) predicted that “Covid-19 infections will occur in waves of higher and lower intensity, caused in large part by pandemic fatigue and lapses in safety protocols”. That assessment proved broadly accurate, except that the intensity of the resurgence has been more than most people predicted. ..

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