NEVA MAKGETLA: SA cannot measure provincial governance just by economic outcomes

The economic differences between SA’s provinces and cities still reflect history more than current governance. The apartheid system focused both public and private investment in production, infrastructure and government services on regions with large non-African populations. To this day those disparities largely determine levels of employment and productivity. By extension, comparing the current situation in provinces can’t tell us much about political parties’ competence.

SA’s provincial boundaries generally reflect apartheid residential policies. In 1996, just over a fifth of the population in the Western Cape was African, over half was coloured, and another fifth was white. In Gauteng, Africans made up almost three-quarters of the population, while almost all the remainder were white. In the rest of the country, in contrast, whites and coloureds each comprised just 7% of the population, with Africans at 85%.

These population dynamics meant that for decades before 1994 the government invested disproportionately in the Western Cape and Gauteng, building comparatively advanced infrastructure, education, healthcare and administrative systems. Today, the other provinces are still playing catch-up.

Access to piped water at home demonstrates the implications for modern provincial disparities. In 1996, according to the census, 75% of households in the Western Cape already had piped water at home. The figure was 66% in Gauteng, but only 31% in the rest of the country. In 2022 the less privileged provinces had made substantial improvements but still lagged behind. About 85% of households in the Western Cape had running water at home, as did 75% in Gauteng. In the rest of the country only 45% of families had running water at home. The rest mostly relied on taps in their yard or in the neighbourhood.

The differences in access to government services persisted despite mass migration to more privileged areas. From 1996 to 2022 the population of Gauteng and the Western Cape almost doubled, while the rest of the country grew only 40%. Moreover, the number of households has risen far more rapidly than the population, adding to the difficulty of maintaining household services. In Gauteng, the number of households has jumped almost threefold, while in the rest of the country it multiplied more than 2.5 times. 

Despite internal migration on a vast scale, the share of the population living in informal settlements has fallen in Gauteng and the Western Cape, as well as in the rest of the country. In 1996, 24% of Gauteng families lived in informal housing, as did 17% of those in the Western Cape and 13% in the rest of the country. As of 2022, in Gauteng the share of informal housing had fallen by well over half, to 11%. It also fell to 11% in the Western Cape, and dropped to 6% in the other provinces. 

Economic opportunities reflect the provincial disparities in government investment. Quantec estimates that Gauteng and the Western Cape contribute about half of national value added, the same as in 1996. In 2023, judging by labour force surveys, some two-thirds of all formal non-farm businesses were located in Gauteng and the Western Cape.

These figures translate into big differences in economic opportunity. In 1996, Gauteng and the Western Cape held 44% of all employed people, though just 29% of the population. In these two provinces, about half of the adult population was employed, compared with just 30% in the rest of the country. The international norm is 60%. In 2023 the employment ratios by province remained almost unchanged from 1996, though millions had moved to Gauteng and the Western Cape. 

In short, given SA’s history it is impossible to judge provincial governance by comparing their current economic outcomes. But efforts to bring about equality also have to recognise that industrialisation inevitably combines dense economic centres with less industrialised rural areas. The answer to apartheid inequality isn’t the chimera of equal industrialisation everywhere, but rather programmes tailored to local realities.

• Makgetla is a senior researcher with Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies.