Life has returned to normal in the US and UK, judging by the crowds attending Wimbledon, Wembley and Whistling Straits. The normal is also guiding our expectations and economic actions and in valuing the assets we own.
An economic crisis may be defined as a serious disruption of economic activity and the severe loss of incomes and benefits ordinarily gained producing and consuming goods and services. It is much worse than your average recession, when GDP declines by a mere percent or two below trend for perhaps a year or so. The failures of the banks and insurance companies in 2008-2009 and the global financial crisis that threatened to implode the real economy with them was one such crisis. Another such crisis occurred in 2020, when economies were shut down summarily to escape the pandemic with the loss of as much as a quarter of potential GDP, and a very large sacrifice of potential incomes and output...
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