What happens when (if) reforms start happening? When there is change, implementation shifts forward. The question is important for businesses’ thinking — generally sceptically — about the recovery. The hurdle is high, so might take some convincing, but equally, one doesn’t want to be “late” in recognising a turning point. 

There is a first-mover advantage to a business recognising a turning point early, though there are costs if the business gets it wrong.

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