Celebrations were in order when Kenya recovered from the 2017 drought, when food price inflation was at double digits, causing political tension during the general election. However, while food price inflation eased from double digits in 2017 to 0.5% year on year in October following a general recovery in agricultural production, the country is not completely out of the woods. Production of maize, one of the country’s staple foods, recovered by 8% year on year in the 2018/19 marketing year to 3.2-million tons, partly contributing to the aforementioned deceleration in food price inflation. But over the past couple of months hardly a day passes without stories of declining maize prices adding to the pressure on Kenyan farmers. While the bearish trend is typically presented as a function of abundant supplies following a good harvest, this is hardly the case. Yes, Kenya’s maize production has recovered to a degree, but it remains below annual consumption of 4.2-million tons. In fact, th...

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