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Ipsos recently released the results of a poll, taken between April 21 and May 22 this year, into South African voting preferences.
It was very poorly reported on by the media, thus, it is worth looking at the survey in an attempt to better understand what it actually says about the South African political landscape, and some of the problems with the reporting on it.
The poll put the ANC’s national support at 47%, the DA’s at 21% and the EFF at 5%: 22% of respondents were undecided.
But first, the methodological facts. The poll surveyed 3,598 people via face-to-face interviews, all 15 years and older. So, for starters, a proportion of the sample would not have been eligible to vote. Ipsos most likely excluded those below 18 years of age, but it doesn’t explicitly say that it did, so something to watch for. The poll did not discriminate between registered voters and unregistered voters. This, too, is a problem, as unregistered voters, who cannot vote, also risk skewing the results. It...
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