Emerging markets ‘in worse shape now’ than in 2008, says Harvard economist
But things aren’t that clear cut: opinions differ and emerging-market indicators have evolved since the financial crisis
Hong Kong/Tokyo — Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart turned heads this week with her comments on emerging markets, saying they’re in worse shape now than during the global financial crisis in 2008. Her assessment comes at a time when investors are turning more cautious on the asset class — and downright bearish on markets such as Argentina, Indonesia and Turkey. But opinions differ on whether the recent turbulence is just a blip or the start of something bigger. The picture also varies from economy to economy, with some in better shape than others. Below is a look at how some of the key emerging-market indicators have evolved since 2008. Current accounts Healthy current-account balances are the front line of defence for emerging markets. While the group boasted a big current-account surplus in 2008, it now has a small deficit — in large part due to a significant drop in China’s surplus. But the picture isn’t uniform. Some countries, such as Thailand, are notable for their strong posi...
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