Nomura sees danger for seven emerging economies — but SA and Pakistan stand out
The eight countries with the lowest risk of an exchange-rate crisis are Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, the Philippines, Russia and Thailand
Hong Kong — Seven emerging economies at risk of an exchange-rate crisis are Sri Lanka, SA, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine, according to a new analysis by Nomura. With five of the seven already in a currency crisis or a programme run by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that leaves SA and Pakistan as the standouts. At the same time, the eight countries with the lowest risk of a crisis are Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Philippines, Russia and Thailand, according to analysts including Robert Subbaraman, Singapore-based head of emerging-markets economics. "This is an important result," they wrote in a note Monday. "As investors focus more on emerging-market risk it is important not to lump all emerging markets together as one homogeneous group; Damocles highlights a long list of countries with very low risk of full-blown crises." Nomura’s findings are based on an early-warning model — called Damocles — set up to identify exchange-rate crises for 30 ...
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