Emerging-market economies have come under intense pressure since July, with currencies depreciating, growth slowing, and interest rates rising. Some of this has to do with strong economic outcomes in key advanced economies and the expectation of higher global interest rates. And some has to do with uncertainty about trade and tariffs and their impact on existing patterns of trade and production around the world. But the extent to which emerging-market economies are affected by these global developments differs widely, suggesting the importance of local factors in understanding how resilient we are to them. SA has become caught up in the global contagion, our economic resilience in doubt, and not without some reason. According to Stats SA, we experienced a second quarter of recession from March to June this year, of -0.7% measured on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis. Parsing the numbers, we can see that investment and household consumption have again unde...

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