The Reserve Bank issued a stern signal on Tuesday that it might start hiking interest rates again if higher global oil prices or a hit to the rand were to cause above-target inflation rates to persist into next year. The Bank’s monetary policy committee decided unanimously to keep rates on hold as expected, and repeated its earlier view that it might be reaching the end of the rate-hiking cycle. This despite the fact that the shorter-term inflation outlook has deteriorated because of higher fuel and food prices, with the average inflation rate now expected to stay above 6% in 2017. But the committee made it clear that it might have to reassess its view if the longer-term outlook for inflation were to deteriorate. Although Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago said the committee had not discussed a rate hike, he emphasised that: “Just because we said we might be reaching the end of the tightening cycle does not mean that the cutting is around the corner.”

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