Gold investment forecast to keep rising
CPM Group cites geopolitical tensions and fears that the bubbling US economic expansion will end in a 2019 recession
New York — Bullion investors, miners and coin makers will help drive the fifth successive annual increase in total global gold investment in 2018, CPM Group said in its Gold Yearbook 2018 on Tuesday, citing geopolitical tensions and fears that the bubbling US economic expansion would end in a 2019 recession.
"The changing global monetary policy landscape coupled with [a] long-in-the-tooth growth cycle in the US and little fresh ammunition to bolster the US markets further, means that the US economy looks most at risk of recession," CPM said.
CPM forecast net gold investment at 20.3-million ounces during 2018, a 6.6% rise from its 19.1-million ounces in 2017.
This would be the highest hike since 2016, when gold investment increased 23.9% to 26.1-million ounces.
The independent commodities research company said gold coin demand for bullion produced by private mints would be at 6-million ounces in 2018, up from 5.7-million ounces in 2017 and the highest since 2016.
"Market volatility has been unusual, [has] worried more investors and brought more attention to gold as a haven," said George Gero, the MD of RBC Wealth Management.
"Asset allocators have been looking for assets that could be a hedge with forthcoming inflation." Total gold supply would rise slightly to 127.4-million ounces in 2018 from 127-million ounces in 2017.
Global mine supply is expected to increase marginally to 97.2-million ounces in 2018 from 97-million ounces in 2017, and is forecast to weigh on investment demand for bullion as a commodity.
Gold prices rose 14% in 2017 from the end of 2016.
Though record-reaching equities and cryptocurrencies likely distracted investors from gold in 2017, CPM said gold prices got a boost from heightened tensions between the US and North Korea, failed attempts to overthrow the US Affordable Care Act and issues with Syria, Iran and Catalonia.