Speakers from Transnet and SA’s dedicated coal export terminals highlighted plans for expansion at last week’s annual IHS Markit South African Coal Export Conference 2017 in Cape Town. They were keen to show that coal companies would not be caught in the same squeeze they were in during the last commodities boom. In the 2002-08 commodities boom, SA’s coal producers were unable to take full advantage of high prices because Transnet could not rail expanded volumes to the privately owned Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) as a result of years of underinvestment at the utility. But this year, as prices have started to climb to about $86 to $88 per tonne from RBCT, compared with below $50 per tonne a year ago, the constraint may come from underinvestment by coal miners, partly as a result of regulatory uncertainty. The likelihood of the government declaring coal a "strategic mineral" was raised at the conference, although there is no indication if this would entail a cap on prices or expo...

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