China blacklists some Australian imports in one-sided trade war

Shanghair/Sydney/Beijing — What started as a political spat between Beijing and Canberra has become a one-sided trade war that threatens serious disruption for an expanding number of Australian exporters.

China won’t allow imports of a swathe of Australian commodities and foodstuffs from as early as this week, according to people familiar with the matter. The curbs are a major escalation in Beijing’s pressure campaign following a two-year stand-off over issues from technology to the origins of the coronavirus.

“The reduction in imports of the relevant Australian products is due to the companies’ own actions,” a ministry of foreign Affairs spokesperson said.

China’s blacklist — delivered verbally to commodities traders — includes coal, barley, copper, sugar, timber, wine and lobster. It doesn’t cover materials, such as iron ore or natural gas, where import curbs could unduly damage China’s own economy.

“The Chinese warned earlier this year that many of the goods Australia exports are replaceable,” Richard McGregor, senior fellow at Sydney-based think-tank Lowy Institute said by phone. “Now they’re going about replacing them. China seems determined to punish Australia and make it an example to other countries.”

That means pain for global commodities groups hauling coal from huge mines in eastern Australia, or lobster farmers rearing the creatures off the country’s west coast. Winemakers, who’ve enjoyed a booming demand from China’s growing middle-class, may suffer.

Here’s a look at some of the trade routes about to get rattled.

Coal country

The black stuff used to generate energy or make steel is the chunkiest of China’s targets. Coal accounted for about 9% of all Australia’s earnings from exports to China last year, far behind the biggest contributor iron ore and a few notches below natural gas.

Iron ore is seen as more immune from trade actions because China’s sprawling steel sector needs vast quantities of Australia’s high-quality ore. The remaining products now in China’s crosshairs all fall in the “other” category. Together they might account for about 5% of export revenues if wheat is included, according to Bloomberg analysis of Australian government data.

Wining and dining

Beijing doesn’t seem concerned about its richer population’s demand for Australian lobster or fine wines. For premium wines, China is Australia’s biggest buyer, spending almost A$1.2bn ($830m) in the year to end-September, according to trade body Wine Australia. That’s about two and a half times bigger than its exports to the US.

The industry has been bracing for trouble in its top market since China announced two trade investigations into Australian wine earlier this year. Shares of one Australian producer, Treasury Wine Estates, dropped as much as 3% on Tuesday, the most since September.

Copper conundrum

The copper market spotlights the trade mismatch between the two countries. About 55% of Australia’s mined copper exports headed for the Asian nation last year. But Australia made up barely 5% of China’s needs, meaning it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for its smelters to source alternatives.

One Australian copper producer Sandfire Resources fell as much as 9%, though the company said it was confident of finding alternative customers if needed. “The ore from Australia might still get shipped to China after blending or in refined form,” Eric Liu, head of trading and research at AKS Resources said from Shanghai.

Wooden result

Though Beijing will halt sugar and wood imports, they aren’t big export earners for Australia in trade with China. The Asian nation banned timber imports from the state of Queensland after finding pests during checks, the customs administration said last week.

“We are seeking more details about the specific concerns raised and steps that can be taken to address these quarantine requirements in conjunction with biosecurity authorities,” Timber Queensland CEO Mick Stephens said in e-mailed comments.

Bloomberg