How many emerging markets will be in top 10 world economies by 2030?
New long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered include a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020
Hong Kong — Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 are likely to be current emerging markets.
The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s GDP rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.
India is likely to be larger than the US in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top five economies.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.
They project trend growth for India to accelerate to 7.8% by the 2020s while China’s will moderate to 5% by 2030, reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.
Asia’s share of global GDP, which rose to 28% in 2018 from 20% in 2010, is likely to reach 35% by 2030 — matching that of the eurozone and US combined.