ISAAH MHLANGA: Capital market discipline will force SA to cut its lavish spending
Financing non-functional state-owned companies will be forced to stop
SA’s debt trajectory is on a troubled path; without drastic measures to curtail growing debt the market will eventually punish the state with a sudden stop in capital inflows. What I fear most is not just an inability to service the debt, nor the state being unable to finance its ever-increasing social needs. These are crucial, but when pushed against an impenetrable wall of capital market discipline the government will eventually be forced to cut its ever lavish spending needs, such as financing non-functional state-owned companies.
The risk I am worried about is an inability on the part of the SA Reserve Bank to respond appropriately to suppress inflation if it rises above the target. This might not be over the short-term, as the Bank has indicated that it is not worried about inflation over the next 18-24 months, but inflation will return at some point in the next cycle and the Bank’s monetary policy committee will not have the space to respond because it will be handcuffe...