Anticipation ahead of G20 meeting ensures cautious trade moves
Europe's main share indices started their day lower after the latest batch of disappointing Chinese data had made for a twitchy Asian session
London — Oil toiled at a more than one-year low after its worst month in a decade on Friday, while most major markets were keeping moves tight ahead of a weekend meeting between US and Chinese presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Europe's main share indexes in London, Frankfurt and Paris all started their day lower after the latest batch of disappointing Chinese data had made for another twitchy Asian session overnight.
Frankfurt's export-heavy DAX and Britain's mainly domestic-focused FTSE 250 were both staring at their fourth consecutive months of falls. For the DAX it is its worst run since the back end of 2008.
The real humdingers though have been oil and Apple which have plunged 21% and 18% respectively, making it also their most wretched months since the financial crisis a decade ago.
"Expectations at the start of the fourth quarter were for a melt-up in risky assets, but two of the biggest trends have been a reversal of some of the few returns we have seen this year, which have been in oil and in tech," said head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets’ Michael Metcalfe.
“Also the market seems to be going into the Group of 20 (G20) meeting with very low expectations of a ceasefire in the trade war. That may very well be correct but politics has proved very hard to predict this year.”
Anticipation ahead of that meeting ensured cautious moves in the currency and bond markets.
The dollar index was a touch firmer at 96.86, having slipped back this week after US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell left investors wondering whether the US central bank might be nearing the end of its current rate-hike cycle.
In early London trade, the euro fetched $1.13780, down 0.15%. The dollar was flat at ¥113.45 while sterling held its ground at just under $1.28 having been lifted slightly in November by UK Prime Minister Theresa May securing a Brexit transition deal.
"We believe that Powell has not turned dovish but simply toning down his hawkish tilt," said Philip Wee, currency strategist at DBS in a note, forecasting another hike in December and as many as four next year.
US money markets though, where the real money sits, are now pricing in only one rise in 2019.
Markets could well be in for a volatile December if Trump and Xi fail to de-escalate their trade war at talks at this weekend's G20 meeting in Argentina.
Data on Friday added to the anticipation showing that growth in China's vast manufacturing sector had stalled this month for the first time in over two years.
"This is not a good year for multilateralism," a German government source said about the prospects for a G20 statement at the end of the meeting on Saturday. The negotiations are “very, very difficult”.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended down 0.2% with Korean shares one of the main drivers after the country's central bank lifted its interest rates in a widely expected decision.
In Japan, the Nikkei ended 0.4% higher, while Chinese blue-chips, which have had a relatively steady month all considered, also advanced 1%.
US S&P e-mini futures ticked down 0.3%, pointing to a weaker Wall Street session on Friday after a mixed overnight performance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 lost 0.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.25% on Thursday.
Adding to apprehension ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, a US official said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who has advocated a tougher trade stance with China, would attend.
Trump himself had sent mixed signals saying, “I think we're very close to doing something with China but I don't know that I want to do it,” as the money coming in from his tariffs was so lucrative.
Back in the oil markets, crude was starting to slip again having tried to steady on news that Russia is increasingly convinced it needs to reduce oil output along with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
Opec and its allies are meeting in Vienna on December 6-7. Brent and US WTI crude were both down about 0.6% at $59.51 per barrel and $51.38 a barrel. Spot gold barely budged at $1,223 per ounce.