subscribe Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Subscribe now
Wildebeest in Kenya's Maasai Mara National Reserve. Hundreds of thousands of the antelopes and and other herbivores migrate between the reserve and the open plains of the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. Picture: REUTERS/THOMAS MUKOYA
Wildebeest in Kenya's Maasai Mara National Reserve. Hundreds of thousands of the antelopes and and other herbivores migrate between the reserve and the open plains of the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. Picture: REUTERS/THOMAS MUKOYA

Maasai Mara National Reserve — Maasai elder Ngararika Noompunito beams as he recalls the awe he felt as a boy when herds of bellowing wildebeest passed close to his mud-and-thatch homestead near Kenya’s Maasai Mara National Reserve.

“There used to be many wildebeest coming through here,” the 65-year-old said as he sat next to his wooden-fenced kraal, wearing a wide-brimmed bush hat and a vivid pink shuka, or Maasai shawl.

“Now, they are much less in number and we don’t see them this side any more. If there are more years when there is little or no rain, maybe the wildebeest will stop coming to Kenya altogether.”

It is one of the greatest spectacles of animal migration on earth: hundreds of thousands of wildebeest, zebra and gazelle making their annual trek from Tanzania’s Serengeti National Park across the border into the Maasai Mara in Kenya.

But as the planet warms, this natural wonder — which draws droves of tourists every year — is under threat, wildlife conservationists say.

Erratic weather linked to climate change has brought more frequent and severe droughts, and sporadic flooding, to the Mara’s fragile ecosystem, leaving the land increasingly without grazing pasture.

This is not only leading to fewer animals migrating to Kenya, but also resulting in them staying for shorter periods.

Research conducted by Joseph Ogutu, a senior statistician at Germany’s University of Hohenheim and an expert in wildlife population dynamics, found there used to be four different wildebeest migrations in different parts of Kenya, but that three have collapsed.

The Serengeti-Mara migration is the only one that remains — but even there wildebeest numbers fell to 203,611 in 2021, a decline of almost 60% from 1977, said Ogutu.

The time the migratory herds spend in the Mara has also decreased — sometimes falling to one-and-half months, compared with four months previously, the research found.

“The numbers of wildebeest were already declining due to the increased human settlements, the building of fences and large herds of livestock, which are all preventing the wildebeest from accessing grazing land,” Ogutu said.

“Climate change has certainly worsened the situation. If there is even a small drought, the wildlife has no space to find food. By 2050, there is a serious risk that the migration could collapse — it could even happen earlier.”

His warning comes as delegates prepare for the November 6-18 COP27 climate summit in Egypt, where world leaders are expected to battle over how much financial support rich countries should provide to developing nations to help them cope with the consequences of global warming.

‘Lawnmowers of the Mara’

Famed for its big game safaris and palm-fringed Indian Ocean beaches, Kenya attracts about 2-million visitors each year from countries such as China, Germany, the US, France, India and Britain.

Tourism is a pillar of the economy, providing more than 2-million people with jobs and accounting for about 10% of the East African nation’s GDP.

Nowhere is this more evident than at Kenya's top tourist attraction: the Maasai Mara.

Covering 1,510km², the Mara’s greatest spectacle takes place every July after the rainy season when the wildebeest pour into the reserve, running the gauntlet of Nile crocodiles as they cross the Mara river.

Once they reach the Mara’s lush savannah plains, the wildebeest feed and mate and then make the arduous journey back to the Serengeti in October to give birth before the herd, with its newly born calves, embarks on another cycle of migration.

As well as generating millions of dollars in tourist revenue for Kenya, the wildebeest are vital to maintaining the Mara’s ecosystem. Sometimes referred to as the “lawnmowers of the Mara”, they feed on the long grass, leaving the shorter varieties for other herbivores such as zebra and gazelles. This also helps to reduce the frequency of fires during dry spells.

Climate threats

East Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, with countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia regularly experiencing unpredictable weather, from long dry spells to torrential rains and floods.

The region is at present battling the driest conditions recorded since 1981, after the failure of four consecutive rainy seasons. That has left 26-million people in the three countries on the brink of extreme hunger, according to the World Food Programme.

In the Maasai Mara reserve, the increased dry spells are also stoking conflict between humans and predators.

“When there is drought, the herbivores move into areas looking for pasture and water and they are followed by lions, who then attack cattle,” said Kasaine Sankan, senior programme researcher at the Mara Predator Conservation Programme. “Community members then seek revenge by killing lions in order to save their livestock.”

Sankan said dry periods also meant that Maasai cattle herders were encroaching into the reserve — leaving less grazing for game.

With support from WWF Kenya, some communities are trying to adapt by reducing their herds of cattle, sheep and goats and introducing breeds that are more resilient to drought. They are also building “predator-proof” enclosures with stronger fencing and lights, installing water pumps and allocating specific grazing zones for the community.

As climate-change models project more frequent flooding and droughts in the Mara, further disruption to the wildebeest migration would be a huge blow, said Yussuf Wato, wildlife programme manager at WWF Kenya.

It would be particularly painful for Kenya, he said, adding that African nations were paying a huge cost despite contributing just 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

“Global leaders at the climate conference need to honour commitments made to secure net zero by 2050, build the resilience of communities and ecosystems by protecting natural habitats and provide the financing to help countries adapt,” Wato said.

“If we do nothing by 2050, these protected areas like the Greater Mara ecosystem are going to be very vulnerable. They will not remain as they are now.”

Thomson Reuters Foundation

subscribe Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Subscribe now

Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.

Speech Bubbles

Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.