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Washington — A trade war between the US and China would probably take a bite out of the world’s two largest economies, economists predict, but not enough damage to pitch either into recession, provided it is contained.
The nations would suffer a reduction in output from the disruption in trade and higher prices that would result from a tariff battle, economists say. The damage could be compounded if the back-and-forth moves trigger a confidence-sapping swoon in global stock markets.
Yet even with all that, the betting is that both economies are strong enough to take the hit and keep growing soundly — unless the clash spirals out of control to include an ever-widening range of products, increasingly higher import levies and a complete collapse of equity prices.
"A trade war lite between the US and China does meaningful damage but doesn’t trigger a recession in either country," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump ...
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