Recently, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) commissioned Victory Research to undertake an extensive market survey into the political landscape (disclaimer: I am the CEO of Victory Research). With the SRF’s kind permission, what follows is the first of three essays on some of those findings, regarding the ANC, DA, and the EFF. We start with the ANC.

First, the methodological parameters of the survey. It was conducted from June 27 to July 31 2022 via mobile phone, using a single-frame, random digit-dialling sampling design, from which a probability sample was drawn. The sample comprised 3,204 registered voters and was fully representative of the voting population (that is, it mirrors the voting population and in terms of all demographic indicators: age, race, education, rural/urban, gender, etc). The margin of error for the national sample was 1.7%, at a confidence level of 95% (that is, we are confident that 95% of the time the findings won’t vary more than 1.7 percentage...

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