The reaction to finance minister Tito Mboweni’s budget was in a way typical. Initially the markets were impressed by the statement of intent, as indicated by the rand’s strength.

But it didn’t take long before attention shifted to implementation risks and the probability that they were based on assumptions that were too optimistic. While GDP growth of 3.3% in 2022 followed by an average of 1.9% in the following two is hardly anything to shout about after the Covid-19 economic shock, many economists don’t believe it will be achieved...

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