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Gauteng premier David Makhura delivers his final state of the province address on Monday, with his party’s tenuous grip on the country’s richest province hanging in the balance. The ANC’s support in Gauteng has diminished considerably in the last decade, with a dramatic slide of more than 10 percentage points recorded in the 2014 general elections. In 2016 it was worse, with the ANC obtaining only 46% of the provincial vote, a staggering decline from the 2011 local elections in which the party’s support stood at 60%. It also lost the two crown jewels, largest budget holder Johannesburg and the country’s administrative capital, Tshwane. Gauteng is an anomalous province — the ANC’s delivery record has increased dramatically over the last five years under Makhura, yet its electoral record paints a picture of a near terminal decline. Its audit outcomes have improved significantly, it has introduced an open tender system that makes fraud more difficult, and the latest Gauteng quality of ...

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