When I was a boy, I spent some time in a ranch in Montana. On Saturday nights, we would drive into town to a cosy tavern, where there was a perpetual poker game. This arrangement provided the house with two advantages from which it profited mightily. First, it sold whiskey to the players, and second, it furnished a permanent dealer — a girl, as it happened — who didn’t drink herself. The cowboys’ mission was to have a good time after a tough week. Hers was to make money for her employer. She knew the odds, (she was rational) and almost always pulled further and further ahead as the night wore on and the cowboys, lubricated by booze, became ever jollier and more prone to exciting but illogical bets. In all games, the difference between the amateur and the professional is that the professional plays the odds, while the amateur, whether he realises it or not, is among other things a thrill seeker. Investment, too, is part science and part a game, and just as in poker, you need to sort ...

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