Donald Trump still refuses to admit he lost the presidential election, on brand for him but off-brand for American democracy. The US is about to enter an unprecedented few months of political dysfunction as the presidential transition gets under way. Which US adversaries will attempt to take advantage of the domestic chaos?

Not China. Chinese leaders are well aware that anti-China hawkishness is one of the few things uniting politicians in Washington these days, but some Chinese policymakers harbour hope that Beijing will be able to work more constructively with a president Joe Biden. And while there will be areas for collaboration in future — climate change chief among them — that doesn’t change the fact that the overall trajectory between the US and China will remain negative as the two economic superpowers continue to compete in trade and technology, even under a Biden administration. But China is too strategic to unnecessarily stir the pot so early; for the time being, Chi...

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