South African government bonds were weaker shortly before noon on Monday, tracking a weaker rand, ahead of major local and global risk events this week.The release on Tuesday of local inflation data for February comes ahead of a Reserve Bank policy announcement next week.There is some expectation the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates, although the primary focus will be on the US Federal Reserve and on global ratings agency Moody’s.Moody’s will announce its latest stance on SA’s sovereign credit status and is alone among major agencies to hold SA’s debt above junk status.Although market consensus is that Moody’s will not downgrade SA further, should it do so, government bonds will automatically fall off global bond indices, which would prompt automatic selling by institutional investors.On Wednesday, when South African markets will be closed for Human Rights day, the Fed will announce its stance on monetary policy. Both the Fed’s decision, and its forward guidance, will be closely...
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