Index affirms that political uncertainty is rising
Technical recession, credit downgrade, new mining charter and the public protector’s report on the Reserve Bank all added to uncertainty in the second quarter
Policy uncertainty increased in the second quarter of 2017 with the advent of the recession, Moody’s credit rating downgrade, the release of the new mining charter and the public protector’s report on the role of the Reserve Bank. According to the policy uncertainty index (PUI) released on Tuesday by the North-West University (NWU) School of Business and Governance, the index showed an average score of 53.1, up from 51.0 in the first quarter of 2017. An increase above 50 reflects heightened policy uncertainty while a score below 50 indicates reduced uncertainty. "It’s the cumulative impact that sends a negative message in a climate of low confidence and low growth," Prof Raymond Parsons, an economist at the university, said. "In the second quarter of this year, we’d be lucky to see any growth at all. We might see a growth rate of 0.5% for 2017." While the second quarter index had not taken the ANC policy conference into account, Parsons explained that getting the economics right was...
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