London/Nairobi — Addressing federal troops last weekend in the captured capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray province, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared victory and asked locals to turn in their fugitive leaders so he could focus on “development”. Not everyone’s convinced the bloodshed’s over.

What comes next for Africa’s second-most populous nation will depend largely on who Ethiopia’s leader really is: a reformer who won a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, or another strongman-in-the-making...

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