CHRIS GILMOUR: Mind the gap
The most recent data indicate that retail sales and credit extension have advanced, but the numbers don’t incorporate the effect of September's interest rate hike
Retail sales data in the past few weeks has been confusing to say the least. Part of this is due to much of the data being slightly out of date and therefore doesn’t reflect the full impact of substantially higher interest rates. And part is also due to the very low base of comparison in Stats SA’s July figures, which artificially boosted sales growth for that month. But as the year progresses and higher interest rates are reflected, retail sales growth must surely start declining.
Retail sales figures for July showed a spectacular rise of 8.6% year on year. That compares with a revised figure of -2.3% for June 2022. The reason for this big jump was a favourable base effect from July 2021, when retail sales were depressed due to riots in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng. The best performing category was food, beverages & tobacco in specialised stores, which rose by 28.5% year on year, followed by clothing, footwear, textiles & leather (CFTL), which were up 13.9%. Growth...
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